America’s only choice is an all-out war with Iran

Political scientist Robert Pape and former Undersecretary of Defense Robert Wilkie warned that the ongoing confrontation with Iran could have far-reaching economic and strategic consequences if Tehran continues restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pape expressed little confidence that Iran would voluntarily restore significant oil traffic through the strait before the U.S. midterm elections. “I see very little chance that they are going to voluntarily open the strait, because I see that Iran is behaving as if it simply wants to wreck the Trump presidency. To do that, you have to damage the U.S. economy. To do that, you have to damage the world economy. That’s what I think we’re heading toward, unless we do much more severe military force“, Pape said.

Pape also pointed to closer defense ties among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan as evidence of a broader shift in the international order. “What you are seeing is the so-called American allies, essentially looking elsewhere for protection. This is going to be true not just in the Gulf. This is going to be true elsewhere in the world. If we can’t beat Iran, then China is not going to think we can beat China,” he said.

Wilkie rejected reports suggesting the U.S. military believes Iran cannot be defeated and argued that a stop-and-start approach to the conflict would allow Tehran to regroup. “If you don’t commit to a total use, the complete use of the armed forces packages that we have in a situation like this, and then you stop and start and allow the other side to rearm through the good graces of the Russians and the Chinese, then you will never win. We violated a fundamental principle of American military thought. When the other side is retreating, when they are disorganized, you don’t allow them to resettle. You don’t allow them to regroup. Allowing the current situation to stand will be a strategic defeat of enormous consequences. Worse than the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan under Joe Biden “, he said.