“The Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes.
Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, echoed some of Cahaly’s points about shy Trump voters being missed by pollsters. ‘There is definitely a submerged Trump vote’, Lee said. Asked for a prediction, he hedged a little but then predicted a Trump win: ‘I can’t call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it’.” (National Review. Read more here.)