Holder Saxo Banks aktivistiske analyser vand?

Berlingske har publiceret Saxo Banks cheføkonom Steen Jakobsens valgprognose forud for det amerikanske præsidentvalg i 2020. Jakobsens konklusion er, at Donald Trump vil tabe valget, og at vinderen bliver Demokraternes Elisabeth Warren.

Jakobsens antipati mod Trump skinner igennem hele hans analyse, som han slutter af med en hånende bemærkning om, at Donald Trump er ”en præsident, hvis koncentrationsevne sjældent rækker længere end det næste tweet”.

Jakobsens analyse i Berlingske bør give investorerne og kunderne hos Saxo Bank stof til eftertanke. Amerikanske kommentatorer og politiske analytikere er nemlig langt fra enige med ham.

En af dem er den republikanske politiker, Newt Gingrich. Mange af dem, som stemte på Trump, ville foretrække, at han fik styr på sine tweets, rensede ud i sit sprog og styrede sin adfærd, mener Gingrich. Men når det er sagt, så er ca. halvdelen af befolkningen i USA stadig parat til at se igennem Trumps excentriske sider. De kulturradikale mediers fjendskab vil derfor ikke ryste Trumps kernevælgere med det resultat, at han genvælges i 2020.

Det bliver rigsretsproceduren, der kommer til at vælte Trump, mener Jakobsen. Den påstand gennemhulles af den kendte amerikanske kommentator og professor ved Harvard Law School, Alan Dershowitz, som mener, at en rigsretssag mod Donald Trump med sikkerhed vil føre til, at han bliver genvalgt i 2020.

Warren er ”et appellerende alternativ” til Trump, skriver Jakobsen. Hun er næsten blevet mainstream i amerikansk politik. Den amerikanske kommentator, Liz Peek, er uenig. I hendes optik er Warren ikke mainstream, men en fanatisk, venstreorienteret radikal, hvis politiske program er uacceptabelt for de fleste amerikanere. Hun skriver bl.a.:

“Assuming that Warren’s surge continues, and that she becomes the Democratic Party’s nominee, most analysts reckon she will have to pivot to the political middle to win the voters lost to Democrats in 2016. That includes blue-collar workers in crucial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, who defected to Trump.

So when Warren promises to ban fracking, voters in gas-rich Pennsylvania, where the Marcellus shale boom has added tens of thousands of jobs, will wonder, is this good for me? When she advocates “Medicare-for-all,” United Automobile Workers in Michigan will ask, why do I have to give up my hard-won Cadillac health benefits? When she argues for decriminalizing illegal immigration and vows to give federal benefits to people in the country illegally, Americans will complain — what about us?

Warren is determined to eliminate the Electoral College, so that New York and California will run the country. She also wants to punish our most successful entrepreneurs and inventors by confiscating their wealth, which will drive many out of the country. Though she’s eager to take more money out of the hands of our private citizens in order to build up the powerful state, she is determined to slash defense spending.

There are many people who will agree with some of these policies, but the majority of Americans will stumble on issues like open borders or third-trimester abortions. And, as she is asked how we will pay for all her grandiose plans, it will occur to some that their taxes will go up.

Indeed, when pressed by Stephen Colbert on whether she’ll hike middle-class taxes, she danced around the question. It will come up again.

Warren will try, but ultimately fail, to shift ground. She is an uncompromising zealot, who totally believes her rants about corporations being corrupt and greedy, and about everything in the United States being rigged. That’s why she claimed to have Native American ancestry; she knew that the lie would help her get a job in this rigged system”.

Alle kender efterhånden udtrykket ”It’s the economy, stupid”, som er blevet fast inventar i nudansk. Jakobsen påstår, at Trump bliver væltet af den amerikanske økonomi, der taber momentum. Den kendte kommentator Marc Thiessen, som skriver til Washington Post og Fox News, er uenig.

I sin analyse henviser han bl.a. til en meningsmåling foretaget af analyseinstituttet Marist College: “A Marist poll asked voters whether the economy is working well for them personally. Nearly two-thirds of Americans said yes. This includes large majorities in almost every demographic group. To win in 2020, Democrats need to win over voters who like Trump’s policies but don’t like Trump. They can’t do that by telling these voters they are wrong about the economy working for them, and that they need to make peace with socialism”.

Hvorom alting er: Danske investorer bør være på vagt over for aktivistiske cheføkonomer som Steen Jakobsen fra Saxo Bank, der bygger deres analyser på manglende indsigt, personlige politiske antipatier og ønsketænkning. Det kan nemlig koste kassen.

André Rossmann