European allies are skeptical Donald Trump will actually pull the US out of NATO. But they still fear the president’s renewed threats to do so are eroding the military alliance at a precarious moment. Trump and his administration have long bashed NATO allies as free-loaders who don’t help the US. Whether Trump follows through or not, the broadsides are further straining the transatlantic alliance and exposing rifts within NATO. “Suggestions of withdrawing from NATO or even considering such a step are harmful,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement. “Even if they are not acted upon.”
An actual US exit from NATO is not that easy. Recent legislation forbids the US president from leaving the alliance without an act of Congress or two-thirds support in the Senate. Other legislation also makes it hard for the president to withdraw large numbers of troops or weapons systems from Europe. These protections make it unlikely that Trump tries to unilaterally withdraw from the alliance. Europeans’ concern is, however, that Trump remains in NATO but states that he won’t uphold the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, or extend America’s nuclear deterrence to NATO allies. Without those two bedrocks of NATO’s power, the military alliance is exposed.

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