Russia Moves to ‘Real War’

Russia appears to be laying the political and military groundwork for a significant escalation of its war against Ukraine after September’s State Duma elections. Four major indicators suggest that the Kremlin is preparing for escalation:

First, sources reportedly close to President Vladimir Putin claim he has “resolved to escalate” the conflict rather than seek compromise.

Second, growing speculation inside Russia suggests Putin could announce a nationwide mobilization shortly after September’s Duma elections.

Third, Russian lawmakers have introduced legislation requiring exit visas for citizens traveling abroad. The measure could prevent military-age men from fleeing Russia if another draft is announced, similar to the exodus that followed the partial mobilization of 2022.

Fourth, the Kremlin is building reserve formations expected eventually to total roughly 60,000 personnel, while also creating specialized drone units, conducting reserve exercises, and strengthening volunteer battalions already fighting in Ukraine. Also, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian preparations have been underway since June to receive an additional 30,000 North Korean troops in Russia’s Voronezh region.

Together, analysts say, the signals point toward escalation — not negotiation — as the Kremlin’s current strategic direction.