Saxony-Anhalt election delivers a blow to Merz and a warning to Europe

The far-right AfD’s triumph in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt marks a defeat for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and sends a warning to other European leaders battling the same mixture of slow growth and ​disillusion with mainstream politics.

In an increasingly polarized political system, Merz, whose personal approval ratings have sunk to record lows, was one of the main targets of voter ire over the cost of living, pensions and economic insecurity. A survey by Infratest dimap for ARD public television found 87% of voters in the state were unhappy with his government.

While far-right parties have governed in several European countries, the AfD’s best performance so far in a state election in Germany carries an urgent warning to other ​nations facing elections in coming months. In France, where opinion polls suggest the far-right National Rally could win next year’s presidential election, Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the outcome of the election in Saxony-Anhalt was a “very, very worrying signal”.

“The AfD is now a highly visible political force which is far more effective at getting its message across than other parties manage to do. And this is not set to change ​in the short term, which poses very significant ⁠challenges for the federal government in its attempts to paint a positive picture of the country and its future”, said Thorsten Faas, a political scientist ​at Berlin’s Free University

For Merz, confronted with a deep-seated crisis in Germany’s industrial base and battling to push through pension reforms that have proved particularly unpopular in eastern Germany, there appear to be no easy answers. Merz came to power in 2025, pledging tough reforms to revive the economy, but his plans have so far produced few visible results. Therefore, by big majorities, voters favoured the AfD to address their ​main concerns around social insecurity, peace in Europe and their own economic situation, the Infratest dimap poll showed.